Аннотация:This study assesses the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on river runoff in the high-altitude Terek River Basin using the physically based ECOMAG hydrological model. Sensitivity experiments examined the influence of glaciation, precipitation, and air temperature on runoff variability. Results indicate that glacier retreat primarily affects streamflow in upper reaches during peak melt (July–October), while precipitation changes influence both annual runoff and peak flows (May–October). Rising temperatures shift snowmelt to earlier periods, increasing runoff in spring and autumn but reducing it in summer. The increase in autumn runoff is also due to the shift between solid and liquid precipitation, as warmer temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain, rather than snow. Scenario-based modeling incorporated projected glacier area changes (GloGEMflow-DD) and regional climate data (CORDEX) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulated runoff changes by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) compared to the historical period (1977–2005) ranged from −2% to +5% under RCP2.6 and from −8% to +14% under RCP8.5. Analysis of runoff components (snowmelt, rainfall, and glacier melt) revealed that changes in river flow are largely determined by the elevation of snow and glacier accumulation zones and the rate of their degradation. The projected trends are consistent with current observations and emphasize the need for adaptive water resource management and risk mitigation strategies in glacier-fed catchments under climate change.
