Changes in Meteorological Risk Factors for Highways in European Russia in Recent Decadesстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 1 октября 2025 г.
Аннотация:An analysis of changes in meteorological risk factors on highways during the cold season over the past four decades is conducted. Based on high-resolution ERA5-Land reanalysis data, assessments of frequency of occurrence heavy snowfalls frequency, transitions of air temperature through 0°С, and meteorological conditions typical for icing hazards are performed for M-1, M-4, M-11, M-12, and R-21 highways in European Russia along their entire lengths for the periods of 1980–1999 and 2004–2023 and the difference between them. The sections of the highways with increased exposure to meteorological factors are identified.The most significant reduction in the number of days with heavy snowfalls is recorded for M-4 (by 12.4%), M-12 (6.3%), and M-11 (5%). For some sections of the analyzed highways, there is a 10–16% increase in the number of days with temperature transitions through 0°C. The frequency of occurrence of days with meteorological conditions typical of glaze ice events decreased for M-4 but increased for the rest of the highways, with the most significant growth for M-12 and R-21. The most pronounced decrease in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of the considered meteorological risk factors is found on the M-4 sections in theNorth Caucasus. The results of the study can be used to develop measures to reduce road transport risks associated with adverse weather events and changes in their intensity and frequency of occurrence in a warming climate.