Аннотация:This study analyses the mass balance and glacial runoff of Mt. Elbrus glacier system, Central Caucasus, from 1984 to 2022 using the energy-balance model A-Melt combined with previous geodetic assessment and orographic precipitation model. The reconstruction shows that the cumulative mass balance since 1984 reached –14.88 m w.e with rates of −0.04 m w.e. year⁻1 (1984–1997) and −0.55 m w.e. year⁻1 (1997–2022). The spatial distributions of mass balance, snow/ice melt, and winter accumulation were analysed, highlighting variations based on combinations of input data sources. For the first time, the snow cover distribution was mapped, revealing a shift in accumulation patterns to lower glacier zones. The contribution of glacial runoff to regional river basins was assessed, showing an increase of 23.7 % per decade. The Malka River exhibited a higher relative glacial input than the Baksan and Kuban Rivers, with projections indicating continued increases for the Malka and Kuban Rivers.
