Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 4 апреля 2017 г.
Аннотация:The newest data about climate changes in surface air temperature (to 2011 inclusive) are cited. Necessity of extending of concept of climatic norms and anomalies in the conditions of a varying climate is proved.
The concept of “dynamic normals” and «dynamic anomalies» is formulated considering multi-year trends (climate changes!), as well as interseasonal variations. It is offered to adopt this concept in both, forthcoming climate changes assessments and also in long-range forecasting out of the «limit of predictability».
An adaptive regression method is proposed to receive «dynamic norms» with use smoothed global temperature as regressor. The skill scores of dynamic norms as "intermediate" temperature forecasts are discussed (analogue of the climatic forecast under a changing climate).