The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asia

Kim, S.; Kryjov, V.N.; Ahn, J.

Авторы: Kim So-Hee, Kryjov Vladimir N., Ahn Joong-Bae
Журнал: Environmental Research Letters
Том: 17
Номер: 6
Год издания: 2022
Издательство: IOP Publishing
Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
Первая страница: 065010
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7061
Аннотация: The 2019/20 winter was extremely warm globally and in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.The main cause of climate extremes particularly in East Asia, was the extreme positive ArcticOscillation (AO) event superimposed on steady global warming. The negligible trend in the AOover the preceding 41 years makes it possible to distinguish the roles of AO and global warming inthe observed extremes. We estimate and compare contributions to January–March 2020 climateextremes by the AO and global warming represented by local temperature trends using the ERA5reanalysis data. Based on results from a preliminary study, we estimate the contribution by globalwarming using linear regression while that by the AO using cubic regression, which is morerestrained for the high AO index values than linear. The results show that the temperature extremeswere mainly caused by the extreme positive AO event which accounts for approximately 3/4 of theobserved temperature anomalies in northern East Asia and 2/3 in eastern East Asia. In southernEast Asia, the AO contributes negligibly and positive temperature anomalies are related to globalwarming and local and regional impacts, particularly extreme sea surface temperature, enhancesouth-westerlies and local radiative forcing. General conclusion is that the observed strong positivetemperature anomalies including extreme anomalies over East Asia could have been achieved onlyas a combined effect of the extreme positive AO event and global warming. Quantification of theroles of the AO and global warming in climate extremes helps to estimate future anomalies causedby extreme AO events as well as assess uncertainties in climate model projections.
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The roles of global warming and Arctic Oscillation in the winter 2020 extremes in East Asiaстатья

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