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Concept of Risk and Visualization of Its Changes in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeстатья
- Авторы: Insarov G.E., Méndez C.L., Semenov S.M., Yanda P.Z.
- Журнал: FUNDAMENTAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
- Том: 2
- Год издания: 2020
- Первая страница: 100
- Последняя страница: 119
- DOI: 10.21513/2410-8758-2020-2-100-119
- Аннотация: Abstract. Decision making in the field of limiting anthropogenic impacts onthe climate system, including climate itself, requires the estimates ofconsequences. The assessment of the confidence of estimates is important for thereliable justification of the decisions, in particular, for the risk analysis. Such anapproach was developed in the scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC), in contributions of its Working Group II ‘Impacts,adaptation and vulnerability’. The paper presents the evolution of the risk conceptin the IPCC scientific reports and current understanding of risk in the latest specialreports of 2018-2019. This understanding is based on the fact that risk arises fromthe interaction of three factors: the presence of a climate related hazard, theexposure of an affected object to the hazard and object vulnerability. Theconstruction of ‘burning ember diagrams’, BE-diagrams, is used in the IPCCreports as the main approach for the aggregation and visualization of informationon climate related changes in risk levels for natural and socio-economic systems,as well as for human health. However, the BE-diagrams presented in publicationsdemonstrate some imperfections, and the procedure for constructing BE-diagramsin the IPCC reports is not sufficiently formalized. BE-diagrams are based onanalyzing and summarizing data and information of two kinds: (a) fieldobservations’ results, experimental and modelling data available from the scientificliterature; (b) IPCC expert judgements. However, the IPCC published no clearprocedure that would include the sequence of steps, starting from (a) and (b),required to assess risks and to build corresponding BE-diagrams. The paper provides an example of such a procedure, i.e. an algorithm for the construction of avisual image summarizing the assessment of adverse effects of climate warming onan agricultural crop, specifically, spring wheat. The demonstrated approach to theconstruction of BE-diagrams can be generalized and used in the development ofBE-diagrams for the other elements of natural or socio-economic systems affectedby climate change. To ensure the transparency of assessments of climate changeimpacts performed with BE-diagrams and to allow users to repeat the assessments,a special IPCC Guidance note on this issue is needed.
- Добавил в систему: Инсаров Григорий Эммануилович