Disastrous flood of 2013 in the Amur Basin: genesis, recurrence assessment, simulation results

Danilov-Danilyan, V.I.; Gelfan, A.; Motovilov, Y.G.; Kalugin, A.

Авторы: Danilov-Danilyan V.I., Gelfan A., Motovilov Yu G., Kalugin A.
Журнал: Water Resources
Том: 41
Номер: 2
Год издания: 2014
Издательство: Maik Nauka/Interperiodica Publishing
Местоположение издательства: Russian Federation
Первая страница: 115
Последняя страница: 125
DOI: 10.1134/S0097807814020055
Аннотация: The major formation factors of a disastrous flood in the Amur basin in July⎯September 2013 are discussed. The role of the Zeya and Bureya reservoirs in reducing the flood hazard is discussed. Preliminary estimates of the recurrence of peak flood discharge are given. It is shown that, considering the deficiency of data on water discharges along the river and the short duration of the available observation series, the esti mates of flood hazard on the Amur R. obtained by statistical treatment of those data shows considerable uncertainty. A physicalmathematical model was developed to describe runoff formation in the MiddleAmur basin based on the ECOMAG information⎯simulation complex and a onedimensional hydrodynamic model describing the motion of flood wave over a 600km segment of the Amur R. was developed based on MIKE 11. The potentialities of the joint use of the proposed models to reproduce the behavior of water dis charges and levels in different parts of the Amur R. during the propagation of the flood in 2013 and to evaluate the effect of withdrawals from the Zeya Reservoir to the water level regime of the Amur downstream of the Zeya R. mouth.
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Disastrous flood of 2013 in the Amur Basin: genesis, recurrence assessment, simulation resultsстатья

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