ИСТИНА

Провести анализ изменений арктической биоты и биогеографических последствий изменения климата в Российской Арктике.

The biogeographic effects of global warming are the most pronounced and expected in the Arctic. Arctic ecosystems are the most sensitive to the changes occurring in this region. Modern climate changes primarily lead to an imbalance in these ecosystems – this is not only warming, but also abrupt changes in conditions over a short period of time. These fluctuations can be critical for the adaptation of species living in the Arctic and its ecosystems. Here they affect biodiversity, the northern limits of distribution (range) of flora and fauna, their composition, population dynamics, migration, reproduction, etc. It is for the Russian Arctic that climate change in recent decades is a factor determining the prospects for the 21st century with regard to the transformation of the tundra and polar desert biota, the northward advance of forests, biogeographic boundaries, the ranges of key Arctic plant and animal species, and the development of reversible and apparently irreversible processes in the structure, functioning and dynamics of ecosystems. The project will further analyze changes in the Arctic biota and the biogeographic consequences of climate change in the Russian Arctic. These studies remain relevant not only because climate warming continues at a high rate (up to 1 °C/10 years), but also because at the previous stage of the RSF project, the team identified new phenomena in the dynamics of the Arctic biota and the features of their development at the initial stages of the response to climate change, which require study and comprehension. The following issues will be addressed:- changes in the northern distribution limits (range boundaries) of some mammal and bird species; available cartographic materials and the team's own data will be analyzed in the context of comparison with climate dynamics;- analysis of retrospective monitoring data from studies of Arctic biota in terms of a number of key indicators and characteristics (changes in vegetation productivity, invasions of alien species, abundance of indicator bird species, dynamics of forest and shrub vegetation at the northern limit, etc.) to identify directional changes associated with the effects of climate or other factors. It is planned to identify clear relationships between the impact of climate change on certain animal species and the state of their populations;- long-term monitoring of observations of biota and landscapes of the model hard-to-reach territory of Kolguev Island and the Chukotka Peninsula will be continued. The significant effects of changing conditions on the Arctic biota will be analyzed, as well as the variability of all related indicators of landscape state – vegetation, soils, permafrost, microrelief, etc. Only with a comprehensive assessment and according to the synthesis algorithm we have proposed, can we understand the real climatogenic changes in the Arctic biota. The state of the Russian Arctic biota does not signal the beginning of destructive processes (destruction) due to ‘rapid’ climate change. The safety margin of Arctic ecosystems and biota is quite high, and resilience mechanisms are activated after climate changes of varying strength and duration. Not all of them are biotically significant, i.e. there are those that immediately cause a reaction of biota, and there are those that act when the effect accumulates. In the first decades of temperature rise, there was an increase in the productivity of Arctic ecosystems, lemming cycles began to flatten, the number of certain mammal and bird species increased, and a more intensive advancement of forests and shrubs to watershed areas and northwards was observed in the southern zone of the AZRF. Now these processes have slowed down and, in some cases, they are cyclical. New data are needed to be able to speak more reasonably about this, to adjust the organization of environmental monitoring in the Arctic, and to give recommendations on the conservation and rational use of biodiversity and bioresources.