ИСТИНА

Проект направлен на решение проблемы разработки методов и моделей гидролого-геохимических процессов, формирующихся на водосборах крупных водных объектов и получение их количественных оценок для каскадов Верхне-Волжских и Камских водохранилищ при современных природных и хозяйственных условиях и возможных сценариях землепользования и изменения климата на их территориях.

The project is aimed at solving the problem of developing methods and models of hydrological and geochemical processes that form in the catchments of large water bodies and obtaining their quantitative estimates for the cascades of the Upper Volga and Kama reservoirs under modern natural and economic conditions and possible scenarios of land use and climate change in their territories. The formation of these hydrological-geochemical, diffuse (dispersed over the catchment) processes is one of the least studied problems in hydrology, water management and, in general, earth sciences. These diffuse hydrological and geochemical processes are not registered or regulated by any environmental agency. Insufficient knowledge of these processes and insufficient attention to them both on the part of water consumers and on the part of the country's water resources protection authorities is explained, on the one hand, by the fact that the use of water resources formed in catchments is of an implicit and indirect nature, mainly in the interests of agriculture. and not directly water management. On the other hand, there is no modern monitoring of the processes that cause the removal of pollutants from the catchment area into the water body. That is why, to estimate the volumes of these pollutants, various calculation methods are used, developed on the basis of specially set field experiments. The urgency of solving this problem is due to the following circumstances. Firstly, as a result of work on the priority project "Improvement of the Volga", which is part of the national project "Ecology", which is devoted, among other things, to the development of the "Concept for reducing the intake of pollutants from natural landscapes, residential areas, agricultural lands, industrial sites enterprises, animal husbandry enterprises, burial grounds and dumpsites, transport infrastructure facilities ", it is shown that at least 50% of the volume of pollutants in the reservoirs of the Volga basin enter them as a result of hydrological and geochemical processes formed in their catchments, and this fact must be taken into account when implementation of the planned measures to improve the ecological state of this waterway. Secondly, no quantitative generalized estimates of the values of these processes for the catchments of the cascades of the Upper Volga and Kama reservoirs were obtained, including, in particular, on the abrasion of the banks. Efforts were directed to the development of the "Concept ...", the recommendations of which, unfortunately, did not receive further development and work in this direction of the Volga Rehabilitation Project was terminated. Thirdly, insufficient knowledge of a number of these hydrological and geochemical processes and the heterogeneity of methodological approaches to their description and modeling, for example, the retention of pollutant flows by the catchment on the way to the water body itself. And, of course, there were no attempts to take into account the influence of possible changes in climate and land use structure in catchments, on the volumes of pollutant flows entering the reservoirs of these cascades. All this will be done for the first time. For the first time in Russia, a methodology will be implemented for obtaining estimates of hydrological and geochemical processes that are formed in various catchment areas of the Upper Volga and Kama reservoirs cascade and the influx of pollutant flows into them, including biogenic elements (nitrogen and phosphorus) under modern natural and economic conditions, and also when specifying different scenarios of climate change and land use structure. Among the hydrological and geochemical processes will be considered the formation of surface spring slope runoff, caused by it soil erosion, subsurface slope runoff ("top water"), underground (ground) runoff, the removal of various priority for water quality pollutants with these types of runoff, the transformation of general flows of these substances by ravine-girder and channel networks. In addition, for these water bodies, for the first time, estimates of the intake of pollutants with abrasion of the banks and from urbanized areas, which are currently absent, will be obtained. Without assessments of these processes, as well as discharges from upstream hydroelectric complexes, it is impossible to compile geochemical balances of these reservoirs, and, therefore, to carry out optimal management of their water resources, which ensures a significant improvement in water quality and an improvement in the ecological state of these water bodies.

1. Будет разработана достаточно универсальная ЛГМ-ДСМ-модель (ландшафтно-гидрологическая и динамико-стохастическая модель) формирования гидролого-геохимических процессов на водосборах водных объектов, получены результаты верификации ее параметров и оценки потоков приоритетных загрязняющих веществ поступающих с водосборов каскадов Верхне-Волжских и Камских водохранилищ в современных природных и хозяйственных условиях; 2. Получены оценки поступления в речную сеть притоков и в водохранилища Верхне-Волжского каскада приоритетных загрязняющих веществ при различных сценариях изменения климата и антропогенной нагрузки; 3. Получены оценки поступления загрязняющих веществ в водохранилища каскадов от различных источников и их вклада в формирование геохимического баланса этих водных объектов; 4. Разработаны научно-обоснованные рекомендации по планированию и реализации мелиоративных (в широком смысле) мероприятий, направленных на снижение потока биогенных загрязняющих веществ в русловую сеть притоков и в сами эти водохранилища, в том числе и на прибрежных территориях.

Основным научном заделом, имеющегося у коллектива является разработанная новая версия ЛГМ, алгоритм и компьютерная программа ее реализации, позволяющая в реальном масштабе времени проводить расчёт притока загрязняющих веществ с разных видов ландшафтов в гидрографическую сеть водных объектов для территории южной части лесной и лесостепной зон. Важным моментом является использование в ЛГМ расчетных выражений, полученных в Институте озероведения РАН для учета удержания биогенных элементов водосбором и разными звеньями гидрографической сети (Кондратьев, Шмакова, 2019). Кроме того, у коллектива имеется опыт использования результатов расчетов полей температуры воздуха и осадков при задании различных сценариев поступления СО2 в атмосферу по МОЦАО и использования их при прогнозах полей среднегодового стока и речного стока весеннего половодья (Сидорова, Кашутина и др., 2020).