ИСТИНА

Singular value analysis is applied to extract time trends in the vector of GDP components: consumption, government spending, investment, export, and import. Hence, the trend of GDP can be evaluated from the basic macroeconomic identity taking into account linear interdependencies of GDP components. The letter allows the method in hand to outperform other extrapolation methods applied only to GDP series. Trends are obtained by choosing the subspace of the state-space representation of the multidimensional signal selecting principal components of corresponding Hankel matrix that do not contain seasonal oscillations. Thus, we can talk about the dynamics of GDP and GDP gap in terms of principal components of the time series.